By Joe Stewart

By the beginning of 2024, both Norfolk and Wrentham were working to create new overlay districts that would comply with state regulations intended to increase housing.  To comply with so-called MBTA Communities requirements, Norfolk and Wrentham are defining zoning districts that will allow development of high-density housing such as multi-story apartments, condos and townhomes.  

In the case of Norfolk, the new zones were approved at Town Meeting in May and all indications are that Norfolk’s new zones comply with state law.

In the case of Wrentham, there have been many opportunities for residents to share their views, from Planning Board hearings, Select Board hearings, a Select Board “informational meeting,” even a joint Planning and Select Board hearing.  In all, there are 18 meetings recorded and available here: https://bit.ly/4drehQ0.

As noted in previous articles, opponents of MBTA Communities cite increased school enrollment driving up school costs.  Opponents have also cited increases in population driving increases in police and fire costs as reasons to oppose the zones.

According to the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®, since 2003 Norfolk has built 2,605 new bedrooms and Wrentham has built 3,024 bedrooms.  Over the same 20-year period, according to the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, sixth grade enrollment in both Norfolk and Wrentham has held steady or declined somewhat.  Norfolk enrollment has declined from 172 in 2002 to 134 in 2023; Wrentham enrollment has declined from 172 in 2002 to 125 in 2023. 

Over 20 years, enrollment in both towns has declined despite thousands of new bedrooms being added.

These trends were highlighted in Wrentham’s Master Plan Vision of Tomorrow 2030, published in 2022 by the Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC) and available here: https://bit.ly/4cmt5Oh. The report stated that the proportion of households with children has been decreasing in Wrentham, consistent with the aging population. 

According to the Massachusetts Department of Revenue, over the same period, 2002 to 2023, education represents about 50% of costs for both Norfolk and Wrentham, while police and fire each represent less than 10% of town spending.

Interestingly, despite flat or declining school enrollment, education costs as a proportion of town spending have been consistent, though in real terms increasing over 20 years. Fire and police costs have likewise increased.

Regarding Norfolk Schools enrollment, Superintendent Dr. Ingrid Allardi noted that housing in the form of one- and two-bedroom apartments does not have a significant impact on enrollment and Norfolk is not projecting significant school enrollment growth from projects that would provide high density housing or apartment style living. However, Norfolk is anticipating enrollment growth from other housing developments taking place in Norfolk and has also experienced steady inward migration of families into Norfolk from other more urban areas. 

Dr. Allardi also highlighted that over the past ten years enrollment in Norfolk’s lower elementary school has increased by approximately 100 students or 25%. As these larger classes roll up through the district, enrollment is expected to grow over the next ten years by another 200 students. 

Regarding Wrentham schools, school board chair Phil Jordan observed that the financial services disclaimer, “past performance is no guarantee of future results,” applies to other projections, like enrollment, as well. He also highlighted the impact of charter schools on public school enrollment, noting that the Benjamin Franklin Classical Charter School has Norfolk and Wrentham children in its program. Like Norfolk, Wrentham is projecting growth in total enrollment growth and is currently in the Massachusetts School Building Authority (MSBA) feasibility study phase - the MSBA’s current 5-year growth projection is approximately 150 students.

Steve King, a Wrentham resident whose profession includes data analysis and visualization, combined the data and produced these charts. New residential sales data was supplied by the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®.  Enrollment data was provided by DESE.  Municipal expenses were provided by DOR. The expense data was adjusted for inflation and normalized to 2023 constant dollars using CPI factors from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.